The Iran War Is Costing Americans 10,000 Jobs a Month. Mortgage Rates Just Had Their Biggest Weekly Jump Since Liberation Day.

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In February 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped below 6% for the first time in three years. For people who had been waiting out years of high rates, that was real relief — a meaningful shift that would have made homeownership accessible again for millions. Then Trump launched a war in Iran on February 28 without congressional authorization, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil spiked, the global economy rattled, and in the single week after the war began, the average 30-year mortgage jumped to 6.38% — the largest single-week increase since Trump's Liberation Day tariff shock last April. The window closed. The relief evaporated. One war decision, and the housing market moved immediately and sharply in the wrong direction.

Your Mortgage. Your Job. Your Flight.

Mortgage rates are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield and to investor anxiety about inflation. The Iran war hit both levers simultaneously: oil prices spiked (driving inflation expectations higher) and the broader economic uncertainty caused bond markets to move in the direction that pushes mortgage rates up. CNN Business reported the single-week jump from below 6% to 6.38% was the steepest increase since Liberation Day — the tariff announcement that shocked markets last April. Goldman Sachs has quantified the job impact: the Iran war is costing the US economy roughly 10,000 jobs per month. That number will compound if the war continues. United Airlines has already announced it will cut flights over the next six months because jet fuel costs have doubled since February. When airlines cut flights, airports cut staff, vendors cut workers, and ticket prices rise on the routes that remain. The war is not a foreign policy abstraction. It is a line item in airline operating budgets, mortgage rates, and monthly grocery bills.

The Philippines Declared a National Emergency. Japan Is Releasing Oil Reserves. South Korea Is in Emergency Response.

The economic damage from the Strait of Hormuz closure is not theoretical and it is not limited to the United States. The Philippines became the first country to formally declare a state of emergency due to the energy crisis caused by the war. Japan has begun releasing oil from its state reserves. South Korea has declared an emergency economic response. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world's oil supply and a third of global fertilizer shipments. Both are now flowing at a fraction of normal capacity. Iran has been charging tolls — in yuan — for tankers it allows through. The countries that depend most heavily on those shipments are running out of options. Higher energy prices make everything more expensive: food production, manufacturing, shipping, heating, electricity. Those costs propagate through supply chains in ways that show up in consumer prices months after the initial shock. The inflation that hits American grocery store shelves in the summer will have its roots in decisions made in February 2026 when this war started.

Trump Said We're "Doing Really Well in Iran, By the Way."

At a farming event on the South Lawn of the White House on Friday, Trump briefly referenced the Iran war, saying "we're doing really well in Iran, by the way," before pivoting to other topics. He did not mention the 13 dead American service members. He did not mention the 10,000 jobs per month. He did not mention the mortgage rates. He did not mention the Philippines. He did not mention that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that Wall Street had its worst single day since COVID this week, or that his special envoy presented Iran with a 15-point peace proposal that Iran has not yet accepted and may reject entirely. He said we're doing really well. Then he talked about farmers.