Adding a citizenship question to the Census was expected to cause immigrant communities — including many legal permanent residents and naturalized citizens — to be undercounted, because of fears that participation could expose household members to immigration enforcement. Studies estimated a citizenship question would reduce participation in immigrant-heavy communities by several percentage points. Since those communities are concentrated in Democratic-leaning urban areas and states, an undercount would reduce those states' congressional representation and Electoral College votes. This is a direct mechanism for altering the political balance of power without any actual vote being cast.
Thomas Hofeller was a Republican redistricting expert who had worked on drawing congressional maps to maximize Republican advantage for decades. After his death in 2018, his daughter discovered hard drives containing his private files. The files included a 2015 study in which Hofeller analyzed what would happen if redistricting were done using citizen voting-age population (CVAP) rather than total population — and concluded it would advantage Republicans and non-Hispanic whites. The files also showed that Hofeller had communicated with administration officials about adding the citizenship question, and that the Voting Rights Act justification — later offered publicly — had been developed after the political rationale was established.
The Supreme Court's 5-4 ruling in Department of Commerce v. New York — written by Roberts, who is not typically considered a liberal vote — found that the administration's stated justification for the question was "pretextual." Roberts wrote that a reviewing court is ordinarily required to uphold agency decisions that have a rational basis, but that "accepting contrived reasons would defeat the purpose of the enterprise." The administration scrambled to provide new justifications; ultimately, the question was not included in the 2020 Census.
This post distinguishes between documented facts, allegations, and analysis. Where motive, intent, corruption, or illegality remains disputed in the public record, the text attributes that judgment to court findings, official records, direct quotes, or the reporting linked below.
- Supreme Court — Department of Commerce v. New York, June 27, 2019; 5-4; Roberts majority; "pretextual"; text at supremecourt.gov.
- Hofeller files — New York Times investigative reporting, May-June 2019; hard drives discovered by daughter; CVAP analysis; communications with administration officials.
- Census citizenship question history — last used in long-form Census in 1950; never in short-form since.